Five Brilliant and Five Magnificent, is the title selected by the US rating agency for the new rankings of economies in shape, and those at risk among developing countries. Turkey appears in the first place. “Turkey is the only one among the sovereign nations that is always among the most vulnerable, regardless of the chosen variables,” says the agency’s accompanying note. The country led by Erdogan is considered at risk due to simultaneous maneuvering, implemented by major central banks in the world.
The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are, in fact, moving from a period of major monetary expansion to an interest rate rise. According to the rating agency, this joint action of the Western world would pose a low risk to emerging economies. According to CNBC, there are two main risks that economies, such as Turkey, are exposed. First, the rising cost of the dollar for low-cost economies (currently the 1 Turkish lira is worth 0.26 US dollars) may have consequences for the dollar investment made by Ankara.
Secondly, the rise in rates would push American investors to return their home (US) home portals in order to protect their money in the function of this economic maneuver. These two concrete risks affect the variables reviewed by Standard & Poor’s, including the state budget, GDP and the percentage of foreign currency debt.
However, in September 2017, the Ankara National Statistical Office reported that the Turkish economy is steadily rising. In the second quarter of the year, Turkish GDP grew 6.5 percent versus 4.9 percent in the first three months of 2017. A record before which is only the seven percent growth recorded in 2015. The same tendency Positive can be recorded in terms of unemployment, which fell from 11.7 percent to 10.5 percent, between spring and summer.
This raises no doubt about the criterion used by the agency to describe Turkey as the black sheep of developing countries. The list has space for Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar.
Even the target cat of Standard & Poor’s. Above all is the presence of the emirate, which causes surprise. In the same accompanying note, it is said that “some observers may say that, because of their own reserves, Qatar should not be on the list of Five Bridges. In fact, Qatar is second behind Saudi Arabia for the strong balance of payments abroad. ”
It is strange, therefore, that precisely in the period when two countries, Turkey and Qatar, are leaving the US sphere of influence and politics, both are “punished” by the judgment of an American rating agency.
Regarding the reliability of Standard & Poor’s estimates, Adusbef, a consumer protection association, has already voiced, condemning the lack of impartiality. Even the White House has not spared criticism, citing the agency’s 2013 trial, which triggered the subprime credit crisis.
The US-centric vision of the agency is also confirmed by the introduction of China and Russia in the group of developing nations, when all major observers agree that above all China is gaining priority over the US in the world economy. Once again it is possible to see how the seemingly neutral Standard & Poor’s economic assessments may actually be refined instruments of geopolitics.